US Elections 2016
Trump’s Triumph: ‘Political Earthquake
In the US and the World’
Dr. Mozammel Haque
During
the last two months – in October and November 2016, the world was in crisis;
everywhere, whether in Europe, or in the Middle East or in the United States of
America, there were lots of problems and calamities. In Europe, there was
problem of Burkini issue vis-à-vis secularism and the future of Islam in
France; in the Middle East, there is Battle for Mosul and the Aleppo onslaught,
humanitarian crisis and the Syrian’s war and lastly, the US Elections of 2016
and the Donald Trump’s surprise victory as the 45th President-elect
of the most powerful state of the world.
In
this issue, instead of dealing with the Burkini ban, Islamophobia and
Secularism in France, or the Battle for Mosul and the Aleppo onslaught and
humanitarian crisis in Syrian war , I will mainly talk about, discuss and
analyse the most ugly, nasty and divisive US elections of 2016; because the
results of this election will bring major changes not only inside the United
States of America but it will have far deeper, far reaching radical changes in
the foreign policy of the Trump era which might affect the US relationship with
Russia, Europe, Iran and the Middle East.
US Elections of 2016
In
the Electoral history of America, this is one of the most nasty and
controversial elections in so many respects: candidates, campaigns and
controversies. So far as the candidates are concerned, neither the Democrat
candidate nor the Republican candidate was most suitable for the White House.
The Democrat candidate – Hillary Clinton, though she has long experience of public office, such as
Secretary of State and the political office, the Republican candidate – Donald
Trump, property developer, billionaire businessman and TV Reality star, – on
the other hand, has no experience of elected office of the country nor hold any
public office. He has never been in political office of the country.
Donald
Trump and Hilary Clinton are two of the most hated and distrusted presidential
candidates ever. Jeremy Paxman met political insider and voters on both sides
of the gaping politics. Jeremy Paxman in his Panorama programme on Trump and
Clinton: Divided America on BBC, said, Abraham Lincoln was the greatest President
America had. He earned respect of the world. He asked where are the heroes now?
Whatever happened on the 8th of November, the winner will be one of the two
least popular candidates of all times. He again asked what has happened to the
true democracy that the choice is so awful. “The supporters of Hilary and
Donald have agreed on one thing – how despicable the other candidate is? The
one is alleged to have risked the national security and the other is accused of
multiple sexual assaults.” (Jeremy Paxman, Paxman on Trump and Clinton: Divided
America, on Panorama Programme, BBC.)
The
US Presidential election was the contest for the biggest job in the world. The
winner will be the most powerful human being on earth. “On the 8th
of November, 2016 American people has to decide who will be hired or fired for
the White House,” said Paxman.
Election
Campaign
As
far as the election campaign is concerned, Paxman said, it is the most unusual
campaign in America – it is unprecedented, most unbelievable campaign. This is
the first time war of words – personal attack on the other candidate was made. Donald
Trump called Hillary Clinton ‘nasty lady’, she should be inside jail and questioned
the candidacy of the presidency of the birth rights of Obama and many senior
members including President Obama said Trump is not fit for the Presidency. Hilary
Clinton has been ‘mistrusted for several years’.
As
far as the election campaign trail is concerned, “Trump political campaign
characterized by an unprecedented level of venom and vitriol,” said Gwenda Blair
(What makes the Donald Special by Gwenda Blair in The New Review, The Observer,
Sunday, 13 November, 2016, page 4) Donald Trump has used incendiary,
provocative pronouncements and inflammatory rhetoric. He made plenty of outrageous
pronouncements: jailing Clinton,
building Mexican wall, he repeatedly contradicted himself. Most importantly, he
campaigned not on policy but on a feeling.
Donald
Trump frequently spoke in derogatory terms about Mexicans and Muslims. Toby
Harnden from Washington wrote, “Trump’s crass vulgarity and inflammatory
rhetoric and mockery of Mexican immigrants. “They’re bringing drugs. They’re
bringing crime. They’re rapists,” he thundered.” (Stepping into Donald’s
America by Toby Harnden in The Sunday Times, 13 November, 2016, Special
Issue, page III)
Donald
Trump also said against women. He said he wanted to establish good relationship
with Russian President Putin to solve the Syrian Middle East crisis. He said in
his election campaign trail about NATO and attacked those members who do not
contribute to the NATO budget. He also said against the climate change, the
Paris agreement.
The
Observer editorially summed up Donald Trump’s message of fear of the
foreigner in America’s midst in his election campaign trail thus: “When he
(Trump) spoke about curbing immigration and building a Mexican wall, when he
demonised Muslims, minorities and people from foreign countries he does not
know or trust, when he vowed to scrap international trade deals that he claims
are destroying jobs in the Midwest, when he railed against selfish allies who
do not pay their way, the subliminal message was always always the same: fear
of the foreigners in America’s midst.. No wonder African Americans, Latinos and
other dark-skinned minorities are frightened. No wonder US relations around the
globe are in turmoil.” (.The Observer, Editorial, 13 November, 2016,
page 36) “
Pollsters and Pundits
From
the very beginning till 6th of November, 2016 pollsters, pundits and
election experts were predicting the victory of the Democratic candidate,
Hilary Clinton. All the pollsters forecasted Clinton ahead of Trump. NDTV and
BBC have also shown graphically how the Democratic candidate Clinton was going
ahead of Republican candidate Trump since September to 8th of
November before the Election Day. According to BBC Channel 4, the chance of
winning the election was as follows on 6th of November 2016.
Clinton Democrat
60%
Trump Republican
34%
Source: FiveThirtyEight
Clinton Democrat
84%
Trump Republican
16%
Source: New York Times
So
even according to the New York Times poll Clinton chance to enter the
White House was even higher.
But
as the Election Day was coming nearer, the gap between the two candidates was
coming closer. Still Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton was ahead of her rival
Republican candidate Donald Trump on 8th of November, 2016, according
to BBC.
BBC Poll of Polls on the 8th of November 2016
Paths to the White House
Democrat 47%
Republican 43%
Democrat 44%
Republican 40%
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll
Democrat 48%
Republican 44%
Source: Fox News Poll
It
is even said that mathematically it was still easier for Clinton to enter the
White House. “The liberal establishment was so sure its candidate would win. As
the election neared, the Daily Kos website put Hilary Clinton’s chances of
winning the presidency at 92%. The New York Times’s Upshot blog said 86%. The
book-maker Betfair said 70%. Nate Silver, of the website FiveThirtyEight, went
for 66.9%.” Niall Ferguson mentioned in his article in The Sunday Times.
Intelligentsia
and Intellectuals
Not
only that, intelligentsia and intellectuals mentioned how the pollsters were
predicting the victory of the Democrat candidate Clinton.
The
Sunday Times wrote editorially: “Pollsters, some using highly sophisticated
methods, expected a clear win for Hilary Clinton. The most optimistic electoral
model, from the president-elect’s perspective, gave him the 29% chance. Others
saw his prospects in low single figures,” The Sunday Times editorial
(Our mission to bridge the Atlantic gap, Sunday, 13 November 2016)
Dominic
Lawson wrote in his article, “He (Trump) would defy the pollsters in the same
way. That is what he (Trump) must have meant when telling crowds of his supporters
on the final day’s campaigning: ‘This is Brexit Plus Plus Plus’ Well, Trump was
dead right about that: his clear victory was a bigger shock to the pollsters
and other so-called experts than even Brexit had been. On Thursday Newsweek
had to withdraw an edition with a cover of a beaming Mrs. Clinton under the
headline “Madan President.” (“Until the left gets beyond wooing ‘communities’,
it will remain in the cold” by Dominic Lawson in The Sunday Times,
Sunday, 13 November, 2016)
Roger
Altman wrote two months ago in the Financial Times column, reassuring
its readers: “The biggest American political question today is not the outcome
of the November election. For all practical purposes, that is over and Hillary
Clinton will be the next president..Yes, an asteroid could collide with the
earth before then.” (“Until the left gets beyond wooing ‘communities’, it will
remain in the cold by Dominic Lawson in The Sunday Times, Sunday, 13
November, 2016)
Election Results
President-elect Donald Trump
In
the end, it is the clear win of Donald Trump. He swept in the industrial areas
in America’s North-east. He secured 279 votes of the Electoral College
guaranteeing him in the presidency.
Electoral College
Votes
Mrs. Clinton Trump
218 270 279
Donald
Trump had a surprise and stunning victory after a long, bitter, ugly and
divisive election campaign. Trump secured victory over Hillary Clinton on Wednesday,
9th of November 2016 to become the 45th US
president-elect after winning more than 270 Electoral College votes needed to
win. Al-Jazeera’s James Bays, reporting from New York, described the
result as “a political bombshell” the like of which had not been seen in modern
US history.
According
to American election system, Electoral College votes are vital to get to the
White House. Trump gained a significant proportion of the votes of the blue-collar
workers in north-eastern states, the so-called Rust Belt. Niall Ferguson observed,
“The months-long ordeal that culminated on Wednesday will go down in history as
one of the nastiest election campaigns of modern times.” He also said, “From
the moment of his inauguration on January 20, 2017 the property developer
turned reality TV star turned politician will be the most powerful human being
on earth. The Donald will become the Potus.” (This was no whitelash, it was a
vote to get America working by Niall Ferguson, The Sunday Times, Special
Issue, Sunday, 13 November, 2016, page IV)
There
is no doubt that Hillary Clinton got the popular vote. A large majority of
Americans voted for Hillary Clinton one million more votes went to Democratic
presidential candidate Hillary Clinton than to her Republican rival Donald Trump;
yet Trump won the Electoral College votes and was elected president. Electoral College
votes is vital to get to the White House.
Among
the key wins of Donald Trump was in Florida that brought him 29 votes; in Ohio
he comfortably beaten Mrs. Clinton. Both Ohio and Michigan have got support for
Obama four years ago.
Florida 29
votes Ohio –
18 votes
Michigan 16 votes
Trump 49.1% Trump 52.1% Trump 47.7%
Clinton 47.7% Clinton 43.5% Clinton 47.2%
Same
story repeated in the Congress. Republicans retained control of the Senate and
the House of Representatives.
Senate
Democrats 47
Republicans 51
House of
Representatives
Democrats - 191
Republicans 236
In
the Senate, Republicans retained its narrow majority but Democrats did make its
small gains. The same story was in the House of Representatives: Republicans
now controlled both the executive and legislative arms of the government.
It
is interesting to note and point out that one political party has not held all
three branches of US Government since the 1920s.
How did the polls get it wrong?
The natural question is why were the pundits so wrong? How
did a victory that almost no one had predicted had come about? What does it say
about the United States election system?
Battleground – Swing votes
This
election is unpredictable. One day before the Election Day Hillary and Donald
were campaigning in the Michigan and Washington, though those were the Democrat
states. There were five battleground states; they were the key swing states
whose votes would decide. The winner of the votes in the swing states will
reach the White House.
Clinton won popular vote but loss
electoral college vote? Why and How?
Hillary
Clinton won a majority of the popular vote, probably by more than a million. It
has to be remembered that she was the candidate of choice for most voters. But she
was handsomely beaten in the race for Electoral College votes. You may be
wondering why Hillary Clinton lost the election. Many explanations have been
offered for Hillary Clinton’s defeat in the election. These are: i) the
complacency of the Democratic party and America’s liberal left; ii) Democrats
took the ‘white working class’ support granted; iii)Mrs. Clinton ignored Bill
Clinton’s advice: “Despite urgings from Bill Clinton, whose populist touch won
these areas over in 1992, Hillary hardly campaigned in the area, focusing more
on getting the black and Hispanic vote elsewhere.” (Niall Fergusan, The
Sunday Times, Special Issue, 13 November 2016, Page V) Pennsylvania has
been a Democratic blue since Bill Clinton won in 1992. Obama won there by
12,000 when he was re-elected for his second term in 2012. iv) FBI Director
James Comey’s decision to reopen the investigation into Clinton’s emails. And
lastly v) the peculiarities and eccentricities of the American Electoral
System.
How Donald Trump won?
On
the other hand, Donald Trump strategy was: i) tap on the white working class,
ii) his campaign won the support of the white supremacists; iii) tap on
disillusionment and alienation; iv) play game of fear and rage and v) lastly,
exploited feeling of whites.
Looking
at how did Donald Trump win, Peter Trubowitz wrote: “Many things obviously: a
politically vulnerable opponent, lower voter turnout, FBI Director James
Comey’s decision to reopen the investigation into Clinton’s emails, among other
things. But at the end of the day, the single biggest factor was Trump’s
ability to recognize and tap into a well of anger and resentment in the
American body politic that others missed.” (How Did Trump Win and What Happens
Next? By Peter Trubowitz, Chatham House website, originally published by the
LSE US Centre).
That
is what allowed Donald Trump to capture pivotal Democratic states like
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and possibly, Michigan and thus won the Electoral
College votes while losing the popular vote.
Election
Results:
Reactions
and Responses
The
surprise and stunning victory of Donald Trump has immediate reactions among the
intelligentsia, intellectuals and other media analysts. Even the American common
people came out on the streets protesting for four days against Donald Trump:
‘He is not our President’. In the following pages, I am going to quote the
reactions and responses of intelligentsia, intellectuals and commentators. .
Disaster
The
Observer editorially described the results as disaster. It said, “It is no
use pretending. Donald Trump’s presidential election victory is a disaster for
the United States and the world. It is, at least in part, a victory for
prejudice and fear, for ignorance and spite. It represents the triumph of
economic nationalism and introspection over internationalism and global good.
It is a victory built on fabrications. Because of this, Trumpism will
ultimately fail, confounded by its contradictions and its immorality. It will
be defeated. But correcting this deformation will not be easy. It will take
time and the damage will be considerable.” (A victory for rage and fear. Trump
will let down his supporters and the world, Editorial, The Observer, 13
November, 2016, page 36.)
The
Guardian View On The Election Results
The Guardian editorially commented, “So it is with the global political earthquake that is the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States. If he is true to his campaign
pledges, which were many and reckless, Mr Trump’s win will herald America’s
most stunning reversal of political and economic orthodoxy since the New Deal
in the 1930s, but with the opposite intention and effect. It halts the ailing
progressive narrative about modern America and the 21st-century world in its
tracks. It signals a seismic rupture in the American-dominated global liberal
economic and political order that had seemed to command the 21st century after
communism collapsed and China’s economy soared.”
Commentators
and analysts have seen the election results in the similar way. Andrew
Rawnsley, writing on the election results in The Observer commented it’s
a “great danger”
Andrew Rawnsley – Great Danger
Terrifying
Trump will turn into Tamed Trump? It/s an illusion: His election presents great
dangers for both the global economy and the international security system.
Rawnsley
observed under the above caption, “A man with no experience of elected office
will preside over a government machine with 2.8 million civilian employees and
1.5 million military personnel. A man who will be pursued into the White House
by a pack of lawsuits will be in charge of FBI. A man repeatedly described as
unfit for the office by senior members of his own party will be the
commander-in-chief with his finger the trigger of more than 4,000 nuclear war- heads.”
(Terrifying Trump will turn into Tamed Trump? It’s an illusion by Andrew
Rawnsley, The Observer, Sunday, 13 November, 2016, page 37)
Andrew Bowen
Writing
in Jeddah-based English daily Arab News, Andrew Bowen, Ph.D. visiting
scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, observed, “President-elect Donald
Trump fundamentally is a departure from any of his Republican predecessors in
both his outlook and tone. He’s neither the pure globally orientated real
politick Richard Nixon nor the conservative internationalist Ronald Reagan.
Trump is Trump and his views of global affairs have been shaped by his own
vantage point and experiences. Trump may meet with Kissinger, but it by no
means is a sign that Washington is going back to the days of George H.W. Bush
and James Baker.,” (Trump’s trump: neither a hawk nor a dove by Andrew J Bowen,
Arab News, )
Scholars
Xenia
Wickett, Head, US and the American Programme; Dean, The Queen Elizabeth II
Academy for Leadership international Affairs, observed, “The world today is a
more dangerous place. Trump’s enthusiasm for unpredictability will make it
worse. But the steps required to mitigate the worst are clear (albeit
difficult): Europe will need to step forward, to take more leadership, and to
bear more burdens.” (.(Time for Europe to Take the Reins by Xenia Wickett,
Chatham House website, 11 November 2016, originally published by Berlin Policy
Journal)
Professor Gilbert Achcar Professor at SOAS
Donald Trump most unpredictable man
Gilbert
Achcar Professor at SOAS, University of London commenting on foreign policy in
general and the Middle East in particular, said, “Donald Trump, as the new president of the United States, would stand out
as the most unpredictable man to have occupied this position ever since his
country started deploying an overseas imperial policy in the late 19th
century.”
Economist Paul Krugman: Shock Horror
The
economist Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times that “People
like me…. Truly did not understand the country we live in …We thought that
the great majority of Americans valued democratic norms and the rule of law. It
turns out that we were wrong. There turn out to be a huge number of people –
white people, living mainly in rural areas – who don’t share at all our idea of
what America is all about. For them, it is about blood and soil, about
traditional patriarchy and racial hierarchy.” (Quoted by Niall Ferguson in his
article in The Sunday Times, 13 November, 2016)
